2011년 10월 11일 화요일

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Oh, yeah, except the part where MB2 decides to pay him upwards of $10 million for
next season.I admit: it's hard to say 'no' to that kind of dough (though what
Martin needs with more money, I'm not exactly sure). But overall, it was a good
week: we netted a positive 3.67 units on 1.5 units wagered; for the year, that
brings us to a net positive 20.94 units, wagering those 1.5 units per week. We've
also won money in 20 of 29 weeks.Note: Please check back Saturday morning for our
head-to-head selection of the week, which we'll make when the online books post their odds.
And while the Michigan and California two-milers are not great equivalents to the three tracks
with which we're concerning ourselves this week, they are downforce tracks, and Junior managed a
fifth-place finish in four races on those two venues in '06. He won at Atlanta,
Texas and Charlotte in the 2006 season's first half, lending credence to the theory that
the #9 team has something figured out in a big way at these joints. Now,
I also had Johnson over Junior, and that sucks, because when their respective cars came
to rest, Junior's was like four feet ahead of J.J.'s, so I lost that one.
Thanks.Take Kasey Kahne (5-1), 1/6th unit. That's saying something. But oh the kvetching. He's been
quite good on the high-banked unrestricted 1.5-mile speedways this year (a fifth-place finishing average, second-best
on the Smokeless Set), on which three of the final six races will take Nike Requin place.
What in the wild world of sports is up with Mark Martin?Here he is. He's
never won at this track, it's true. Enough. He complains about his car all day
long over the radio, then gets out of the car and tells reporters, with tears
in his eyes, that he loves his team, he loves the car they gave him,
he loves everyone. It looked for all the world that I was going to come
up empty at Talladega last weekend, but Brian Vickers came through for me, wrecking Johnson
and Dale Earnhardt Jr. That's just nuts. These guys are the co-favorites, it's true, and
with good reason: Kahne has his impressive triumvirate of cookie-cutter-track victories, and Johnson has the
name of this speedway stenciled on his hood. Rolling into Talladega and telling the world
that he's parting company with Roush Racing, and will instead run 22 races in the
MB2 Motorsports #01 car, currently piloted by Joe Nemechek.Ruh? Raggy?Martin is, as they say, a
whopping flake. Let's take a look at the best bets for this Saturday-night event.Last Week:
When you're hot, you're hot. Giving interviews left and right that he has no desire
to run Nextel Cup cars anymore, and that he'll be satisfied with a part-time ride
in the Craftsman Truck series. Kahne is the current stud on this track type. In
the middle of his second retirement tour. on the race's last lap to win his
first Nextel Cup race. Woo. And if it's not Kahne, it's going to tn requin be Johnson.
Indeed, Lowe's has been berry, berry good to J.J.: outside a wreck-induced 39th-place here his
rookie year, he's got a career finishing average at Charlotte of 2.56, including five wins.
Fine. But oy, enough with the hand-wringing, Hamlet.Anyway, here comes Charlotte: the first of the
three 1.5-mile, high-banked tracks coming up in the next four races. I'm also impressed by
the fact that after practicing 17th, qualifying 16th, and practicing again 15th (that's consistency for
you), he went out in Happy Hour and posted the fastest lap of anyone in
the race. He hasn't won a race this year, but has seven top-fives and 14
top-10s, and just as important, is the only driver in the Chase for the Championship
without a DNF (he's also the only driver in the Chase without a win). Jimmie
Johnson has owned this place, winning four straight until this spring, when Kasey Kahne broke
his string. I had Vickers in a straight-up wager at 30-1. Hoo. He also ran
to a 12th at Texas. In the middle of the Chase for the Championship (he
currently sits third, only 10 points out of first). Junior took a severely damaged car
at Atlanta (on a Monday, because of a rainout) this spring, and finished third with
it. These kinds of streaks end, of course, but even in falling to Kahne back
at the Coke 600 this summer, Johnson finished second. You've heard of the Young Guns?
Welcome to the Geezer Brigade.Okay, yeah, sure, Martin doesn't want to drive the Nextel Cup
circuit full-time anymore, and so he gets to keep his toe in the water while
making a ton of scratch, and a loser team with a new owner gets some
credibility. Martin jerked us around on his "Salute To You" Tour (in which he and
Rusty Wallace accepted tons of retirement gifts at every track they visited), and then jerked
us around this year, claiming his was done with stock cars. You have to believe
he's going to be near the front at race's end.Take Dale Earnhardt Jr. Plus, he's
not a threat in the Chase for the Championship, so there's no reason for him
not to go balls-out.Take Jimmie Johnson (5-1), 1/6th unit. But the high-banked 1.5-milers, which have
long been the bane of DEI, have suddenly become a specialty. I give him a
decent chance, and at these odds, that's okay by me.Christopher Harris is a featured writer
for the Professional Handicappers League. (15-1), 1/6th unit. Charlotte, Atlanta and Texas are all basically
identical, and they regularly swap the honor of being the fastest track in NASCAR. In
fact, he really hasn't been very competitive here of late, finishing 42nd and 33rd in
Charlotte in '05, and 11th in the Coke here in May. MB2 isn't a competitive
team, and it seems unlikely that they'll win races next year. They will be fielding
three cars: Marlin and Regan Smith in the #01, Nemechek moving over to the #13,
and Sterling Marlin in the #14. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com.
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